The most popular Luzhou stock exchange futures saw

2022-07-26
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LUZHENG Futures: Japanese rubber rebounded strongly, Shanghai Rubber opened low and went high. I. summary of trading in the previous trading day

Shanghai Tianjiao futures 0811 contract opened low and went high yesterday. After opening, it went high step by step. It fell several times in the session, but the pressure on the disk was not heavy. In the afternoon, under the influence of Japanese rubber, rubber (23460585.00,2.56%, bar) regained its upward momentum. It weakened slightly in the late session, and closed at 23200 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The trading volume was flat compared with the previous day, and the position increased. The trend of Shanghai Tianjiao futures 0809 contract was stronger than that of 0811 contract, with increased trading volume and reduced positions. Now the theme of the founding meeting is to "give full play to advantages, change the situation, and work with one heart and one mind to impose more than the specified temperature and create a win-win situation"

II. Recent fundamentals

the international rubber study group lists India as a rubber consumer. At present, its annual rubber consumption ranks fourth in the world, but India is likely to replace the United States as the second largest rubber consumer. According to the statistics of IRSG, the rubber consumption of India in 2007 was 1141000 tons, accounting for 5% of the total global consumption. IRSG predicts that India's rubber demand will reach 2188000 tons by 2020, accounting for 7% of the total global demand. IRSG secretary general said: at present, India's per capita rubber consumption is lower than the global average, so it has more growth potential. India will become the only country with rapid growth in rubber demand. Whether in the short term or the long term, the demand for rubber in the United States will decrease; Japan and Germany will maintain current consumption; China's rubber demand growth rate will slow down, but it will still remain the largest consumer country. The CEO of the international rubber union said: India's rubber consumption is an important factor for the stability of the international rubber market, but we are also concerned about the explosive growth of India's rubber planting area. If Indian rubber demand fails to keep up, the surplus of Indian rubber production will affect the global rubber market price

according to preliminary statistics, 549000 tons of new rubber resources were added in July, an increase of 7.4% over the previous month and 8.3% over the same period last year. Among them, natural rubber resources increased by 210000 tons, an increase of 16.7% over the previous month and a decrease of 8.7% over the same period last year; Synthetic rubber added 339000 tons of resources, an increase of 22.4% over the same period last year. From January to July, 3.378 million tons of new rubber resources were added, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year. Among them, natural rubber resources increased by 1.18 million tons, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year; Synthetic rubber increased 2.198 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in July, the downstream industry of the main rubber consumers in China continued to maintain rapid growth due to the uneven fuselage fees. The national automobile output was 757000, a decrease of 12.4% over the previous month, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month; The output of tires was 49.672 million, a decrease of 2.0% over the previous month and an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year. From January to July, the national automobile output reached 6.018 million, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year; The tire output was 330million, an increase of 13.5%. Only from these two sets of data, the growth rate of supply is still slower than the rapid growth of demand

spot, Please refer to the following table:

summary

date product code/name trading volume average price maximum price minimum price rise and fall

cnr/concentrated latex 50 16000 16000 16000 -0.62

SCR5 (R)/5milk standard 441 26802 26850 26650 -0.55

Haikou trading hall

date product code/name trading volume average price maximum price minimum price rise and fall

SCR5 (R)/5 milk standard 441 26802 26850 26650 -0.55

Guangdong trading hall

date product code/name average trading volume highest price lowest price rise or fall

cnr/concentrated latex 50 16000 16000 16000 -0.62

III. operation suggestions

Japanese glue closed slightly yesterday. The main contract 811 has a continuous positive line, and the decline channel has been damaged. There is an inflection point. The future market trend will look for a new direction, and it is expected that it will inevitably suffer severe shocks. With the arrival of the seasonal supply peak of rubber trading, the international spot price has continued to decline, and some Thai offers have fallen to about US $2800. The pressure on domestic spot is increasing; In the downstream consumption sector, the production and sales of the international automobile industry have slowed down, and the consumer demand is sluggish. Under the condition that the supply of rubber is sufficient and the demand slows down, the role of bad fundamentals has gradually emerged in the contracts in recent months. Will the multi-party speculative funds involved in the speculation of the rubber 0809 contract be delivered? It can be inferred that it needs to be observed

operation suggestions: you can try intra day short-term trading, with a support of 2290022500; Pressure level 2350024000

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